Wednesday, January 09, 2008

What's wrong with this picture?

I've been doing some quick reading about business forecasts around the emergent technologies that my dissertation is dealing with - artificial intelligence, robotics, genetic manipulation etc. Most of the futurists agree that even before the "information age" that we're currently in is finished, we will be/are entering into the "molecular age" where nanotechnology and biotechnology will change our lives significantly.

One of the sources I've been looking at Technofutures by James Canton, is a bit old already, but it looks far enough into the future that much of what he describes hasn't happened... at least not yet.

But it struck me as I read many of the "scenarios" that he presents depicting life in our ever increasingly technological future, that they really don't seem much different from our present - depressingly so in some cases. Perhaps this one is so depressing because Sarah sounds too much like me.

An abridged example:
Sarah Buys a New Car

Sarah hates to shop. She is raising three kids, went back to school for her third degree, and she doesn't have the time to haggle with car salesmen. So she contacted her Know-Broker, Sammy.... Know-brokers are Net middlemen. They keep an active knowledge network of who has the best products and services for their customers....

"Sammy gets the job done for me. I need it, he finds it," says Sarah to her son Brad. She is sitting on the front porch with her youngest son watching the early dusk come up on a beautiful Montana sky.

Turning back to the video screen on her wireless phone where Sammy is waiting, Sarah explains what she wants....

Sammy replies "I have ten trucks you can choose from in virtual inventory. Let me download the vid-files now with all the data"...

"Looks good, I like the prices... How about financing and pickup options?" Sarah inquires....

"Already done, financing approval coming in now. I need your digital finger signature. License and plates will be ready in 24 hours. Registration is happening now. How about we devlier to you by Thursday, no extra charge?"

"What took you so long, I got supper to cook. Sammy, you are amazing."

"Thanks, I'll vid mail all the digital ownership files to you by morning. Enjoy you new pickup, Sarah."

"Can you imagine the hassle of dealing with driving out to the different dealers? All the time that would take? And how would I ever know I got the best deal?" Sarah says to her son. "Now let's see about that dinner."

Leaving aside the fact that services like "Sammy" already exist (though they are usually people, not automated bots), what depresses me in this vision of the future is that "Sarah", mother of three, triple-degree earner, is still worrying about what to make for dinner! Where are the technological innovations for that?!

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